Sports Card Metrics
Price efficiency · hit rates · sealed product analytics
Sports Card Metrics
Price efficiency · hit rates · sealed product analytics
Reddit spreadsheets die after two weeks. This doesn't.
I wanted a tool like this for myself when debating buying a product, or after, deciding to rip it or keep it sealed (mostly ripping it anyway). If I was going to build it I figured I might as well share it. It uses official Topps odds PDFs and eBay sold data to calculate expected value across every sealed format. If you find it useful and want to help keep it running, much appreciated but not required at all.
What is a "hit"?
A hit is anything beyond a standard base card. Autographs, relics (jersey/patch cards), numbered parallels, and short prints. When we show "$/Hit", that's the MSRP or market price divided by how many of these premium cards you can expect per box.
How are auto rates calculated?
We use the official odds Topps publishes in their product odds PDFs. Each auto tier (Rookie Autographs, Chrome Legends, etc.) has a stated probability per pack or box. We add those up across all auto tiers to get the total expected autos per box for each format.
What's the difference between MSRP, Sold Price, and Ask Price?
MSRP is what Topps says the box should cost. Sold Price is the median of what boxes actually sold for on eBay (completed transactions). Ask Price is what sellers are currently listing boxes at (active listings). For popular sets, both can be 2-3x MSRP. We track all three so you can see the real cost per hit whether you're buying at retail or on the secondary market.
Why are some sets missing data?
We rely on official Topps odds PDFs for pull rate data. Some older sets or newer releases might not have complete odds yet. Card prices come from aggregated eBay sold listings, so not every card or variant has enough sales to show a price.
What does "numbered" mean?
A numbered card has a limited print run, printed right on the card as /50, /25, /10, etc. Lower number means rarer and usually more valuable. Gold parallels are typically /50, Red is /5, and Superfractors are 1/1.
What sports and sets are covered?
Right now we cover Topps baseball (2023-2026 Series 1, Series 2, Update, Chrome, Chrome Update), Topps basketball (2023-26 Chrome, Flagship, Cosmic Chrome, Bowman, Finest), and Topps football (2024-2025 Chrome). We add new sets as they release.
How often is the data updated?
Sealed box prices from eBay update daily. Individual card prices refresh periodically. Odds data is static since it comes from the official Topps PDFs and doesn't change after a set releases.
How accurate is the data?
We do our best to be accurate. Pull rates come directly from the official Topps odds PDFs, card prices come from real eBay sold listings, and sealed box prices come from eBay completed transactions. We parse and normalize hundreds of tier names across dozens of sets, and mistakes are possible. If a number looks wrong to you, email zach@metrics.cards and we'll check it. Treat every number here as a reasonable estimate, not a guarantee, and don't make a large purchase decision on a single data point without sanity checking it elsewhere.
What is "PSA 10x"?
The PSA 10 multiplier shows how much more a PSA 10 graded card is worth compared to the same card raw (ungraded). A 5x means the graded version sells for 5 times the raw price. Useful for figuring out which cards are worth sending in for grading.
For feedback, questions, or suggestions, reach out at zach@metrics.cards
Sports Card Metrics is not affiliated with Topps, Fanatics, or eBay. All trademarks belong to their respective owners. Data is provided for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice.